Saturday, April 15, 2006

Going After Rumsfeld

Over the past couple weeks several former Generals have called for Sec Def Rumsfeld's resignation. The main problem seems to have been mismanagement of the Iraq War in the post-war phase, which as we all know, has put the US in a kind of tar baby relationship with nation of Iraq.

I think the criticisms are justified, but I also think they miss the point. The war itself was brilliant, but it ended almost three years ago. The post-war has not (yet) been successful, because of a lack of manpower, a lack of planning, and so on. But how can that be blamed on Rumsfeld?

Rumsfeld did not deal with any complicated postwar scenarios because all of that would have called for pre-invasion allocations of funds, exploding the notion that the war would pay for itself. He ignored calls for complicated contingency plans for the political aftermath, because that would have made it clear that the bulk of US forces would not be leaving in three months and that an easy transfer of power to Chalabi and company was just wishful thinking. Nor could Rumsfeld have demanded a half a million troops -- in line with General Shinseki's estimates -- because that would have forestalled the invasion even further, and, moreover, I must confess that I am not sure that the Armed Forces of the United States even has the ability to deploy that many people, whether long term (in terms of tripartite rotations) or even in the short term.

Bottom line, Rumsfeld played the hand he was dealt by leadership above his pay grade. Even if he had been more prescient and less "stuff happens" in his approach, it wouldn't have made any difference. True, given the situation in Iraq and Rumsfeld's responsibility for that, the idea of him heading some kind of military action against Iran does not inspire confidence, to put it mildly. But ultimately his firing now would only be punitive, and he would probably just be replaced by someone else who would be only too eager to play with another hand dealt to him from the Oval Office.

I have to say I think Rumsfeld is being scapegoated here. And yet, people have to find a locus for their deep dissatisfaction and disillusionment with the way OIF has played out. Since Bush and Cheney seem immune, and, let's face it, they were re-elected, Rumsfeld is the guy, faute de mieux.

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